England faces a projected daily water shortfall of five billion litres by 2055. That figure — equivalent to 25 million people running a tap for 20 minutes — sits at the heart of a major new public campaign launched on 1 July 2026 and backed by Ofwat, the Water Minister, and a coalition of environmental scientists and conservation bodies.

The campaign, Let's Save Water, is a four-year initiative running across England and Wales. It aims to close the gap between what people believe about their water use and the reality — and in doing so, to build the public understanding that sustains the regulatory and political case for the infrastructure investment already underway.

5bn
litres daily shortfall projected by 2055 in England
140L
actual daily water use per person — vs 30L people think they use
11%
of adults in England and Wales who understand their water use
53%
who believe water shortages are only short-term

The Perception Gap

A YouGov survey of 3,121 adults commissioned for the campaign found that the average person believes they use around 30 litres of water a day. Actual per capita consumption in England is roughly 140 litres — nearly five times as much. Only one in ten adults correctly understood their daily usage.

More than half of respondents believed water shortages were a short-term, weather-dependent phenomenon. Around a third said they felt their individual water use made little difference at a national level. These findings matter because public willingness to tolerate both supply-side investment costs and demand-side restrictions has a direct bearing on the regulatory environment in which water companies and their supply chains operate.

Why this is structurally different from a drought warning. Previous public messaging has typically been reactive — hosepipe bans, appeals during summer dry spells. This campaign frames scarcity as a permanent structural challenge driven by climate change and rising demand, not a temporary weather event. The shift in framing has implications for how water companies justify long-term capital programmes and for how regulators set price controls beyond AMP8.

What's Driving the Shortfall

The projected five billion litre daily gap by 2055 is the product of two converging pressures: rising demand from a growing population, and reduced reliability of supply driven by climate change.

Professor Lizzie Kendon, Strategic Head of Climate Processes and Projections at the Met Office, has explained the mechanism clearly: England is experiencing wetter winters but drier summers, with more intense and concentrated rainfall. When heavy rain falls on hardened, dry ground — as is increasingly the case — a large proportion runs off as surface water rather than being absorbed into aquifers and reservoirs. The result is that higher total rainfall does not automatically mean more usable water.

Wales faces a related challenge. While historically associated with plentiful rainfall, Natural Resources Wales has highlighted that changing seasonal patterns mean water availability can no longer be assumed to be consistent year-round, particularly during peak summer demand.

The Infrastructure Angle

Water Minister Emma Hardy confirmed in Parliament in late June 2026 that the government is supporting the construction of nine new reservoirs as part of its long-term water supply strategy. These are multi-decade infrastructure projects — none is expected to be operational before the mid-2030s at the earliest — but their commissioning signals sustained civil engineering and process work for the supply chain throughout AMP9 and beyond.

Ofwat CEO Chris Walters has been explicit that infrastructure investment alone will not close the gap. The regulator's position is that leakage reduction, demand management, and smart metering must work alongside new supply infrastructure. For the supply chain, this means the investment pipeline extends across multiple programme types: reservoir and treatment works construction, smart meter rollout, leak detection and network rehabilitation, and water recycling and reuse facilities.

The government confirmed six new desalination plants for south and east England in the same period — a programme that will generate procurement for civil, process engineering, membrane technology, and electrical contractors over the coming decade.

What This Means for Suppliers and Contractors

The five billion litre shortfall is not a new number — water companies and regulators have cited it in various forms for several years. What is new is the scale of the public-facing campaign designed to build acceptance of the changes needed to address it. For businesses working in the sector, the significance is indirect but real:

  • Political cover for investment. AMP8's £104bn capital programme is already the largest single investment cycle the water sector has seen. A credible public narrative around water scarcity sustains the political and regulatory case for continued high capital spending into AMP9 (2030–2035).
  • Demand management as a procurement category. Ofwat's Water Efficiency Lab has recently awarded £5.2M across seven projects, including smart metering and behavioural tools. This is a relatively small number, but it signals that demand-side technology is entering the regulated procurement pipeline.
  • Drought resilience as a design standard. The Met Office's framing of wetter winters and drier summers as the new baseline has direct implications for how treatment works, reservoirs and distribution networks are designed. Engineers and consultants positioning for framework work in AMP9 should factor in drought resilience as a core design requirement rather than an optional extra.
  • New reservoir development. Nine new reservoirs in development is a significant pipeline for civil contractors, environmental consultants, and specialist groundworks firms. The planning and environmental assessment work is the near-term opportunity; construction will follow over the next decade-plus.

The Context Within AMP8

The Let's Save Water campaign launched within days of Affinity Water publishing its first AMP8 annual results and WICS opening consultation on Scottish Water's £7.9bn Draft Determination. The timing is not coincidental — water security is moving from a specialist regulatory topic to a mainstream public and political concern, and the industry's responses are increasingly being framed in those terms.

For suppliers and contractors, the practical near-term question remains what is procured and when. The long-term water supply picture — reservoirs, desalination, water recycling — represents opportunities measured in decades. The medium-term opportunity is in the demand management, smart metering and network rehabilitation work that water companies are procuring now under their AMP8 programmes.

Key takeaway for the supply chain: The five billion litre shortfall is not a crisis confined to 2055 — it is driving capital decisions being made today. Companies working across smart metering, leak detection, treatment technology, reservoir construction and environmental consulting are all positioned in programme areas that this demand gap will sustain well into the 2030s.

Source: letssavewater.com · Ofwat · Water Minister Emma Hardy (parliamentary statement) · Met Office · Natural Resources Wales · YouGov (3,121 adults, England & Wales, 2026)